Wildfires and Climate Change: Physics-Based Modelling of Fire Spread in a Changing World

Introduction

Fire has long been a ubiquitous and essential part of the global environment, as many ecosystems and societal life fundamentally depend on fire. Despite this, we still lack a fundamental theory of fire spread, which becomes crucial in a changing world if we want to understand and predict the occurrence of uncontrolled fires.

Background

Uncontrolled fires are a global phenomenon that are becoming commonplace as changes in moisture and local temperature driven by climate change affect local fuel properties and ecosystems. As we construct more housing and industry in areas that were previously wildlands, the Wildland-Urban Interface becomes more critical as wildfires now affect infrastructure and urban systems.

Problem Statement

The societal, scientific, and engineering problem of uncontrolled fires is a complex one. It requires the harmonization of both engineering and environmental science methods, including:

• Combustion engineering
• Real-time modelling
• Data assimilation and management
• Development of techniques that can adequately support the needs of fire management

Objectives

The aim of this proposal is ambitious but essential to understand and predict the occurrence of uncontrolled fires: We need a fundamental physical model to understand the process of fire spread. This model needs to be validated and must work for all conditions and fuel types.

Methodology

We will develop this physical model focusing on three different methods, in parallel:

1. Study fire across temporal and spatial scales to understand changing fire regimes, including vegetation dynamics.
2. Understanding fire on multiple scales will help with scaling up from small-scale fine mesh models to much larger grid sizes.
3. Integrate the effect of smouldering combustion into the modelling of fire spread.

Expected Outcomes

The scientific outcomes of our work will ensure that there is a fundamental step-change in the approach to modelling wildfire ignition and spread. The proposed methodology and tools will then be widely available for scientists to adapt.