Open-Access Forecasting System of the Health Effects of Air Pollution

Introduction

Air pollution represents a major global environmental health problem. 99% of the world population lives in locations where international air quality guidelines are not met. Overall, ambient air pollution causes 4.2 million premature deaths every year worldwide, half a million of which in Europe alone.

Limitations of Current Systems

Available early warning systems of air quality are generally based on:

• Location-specific thresholds of air pollutant concentrations.
• Forecasts representing the physical processes of atmospheric chemistry.

These systems do not account for the inequalities in vulnerability of the exposed populations.

Project Overview

The ERC-funded project FORECAST-AIR will go beyond these limitations in health early warning systems by integrating:

1. Air quality forecasting.
2. Environmental epidemiology.
3. The inequalities in vulnerability.

This integration aims to implement a new method to issue public health alerts.

Methodology

Towards this aim, I will:

• Estimate epidemiological models between air pollution observations and health records disaggregated by causes of disease and sociodemographic vulnerable groups.
• Use these models to transform bias-corrected air quality forecasts into health predictions.
• Analyse and compare the window of predictability of forecasts and predictions.
• Use this comparative study to assess the predictability of the resulting health early warning systems, ensuring they generate trust among public health authorities and end-users.

Expected Outcomes

If successful, FORECAST-AIR will drive innovation by creating operational, fit-for-purpose early warning systems that represent the health impacts of several air pollutants, with a special focus on vulnerable populations.