Filling the Behavioral Gap in Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation

Introduction

Do only foolish people drown and only compulsive gamblers suffer flood losses? Conventional wisdom is based on flawed underlying assumptions, and the EU vision of a disaster- and climate-resilient society cannot be achieved by relying on “behaviour-blind” assessments and policy.

Impact of Behaviour on Crisis Management

Whilst the behaviour of individuals, businesses, and public services before, during, and after a crisis has a significant impact on damages, recovery, and resilience, current assessments fail to include such critical factors because they are hardly understood. Floods and weather hazards are affecting 2 billion people, and exposure is expected to grow due to climate change.

Current Challenges

Despite trillions of public funds invested, current flood reduction and planning policies are failing to reduce risks and losses of lives. This is due to a mismatch between the rising application of risk, vulnerability, and resilience assessments and the understanding of their empirical validity.

Project Goals

The overarching goal of this proposal is to move from “behaviour-blind” to “behaviour-aware” assessments, indicators, and policies to save lives and public money. Lifting the current barriers to predicting and simulating risk perception and behaviour will create forefront knowledge and open new horizons.

Need for Empirical Research

Social and technological changes have widened the gaps in our knowledge, making new empirical research essential to refine or replace existing theories.

Demonstrators and Context

This project will provide four demonstrators representative of the European and Mediterranean context, graded in size, wealth, and exposure to reach general considerations:

1. Paris
2. Barcelona
3. Bucharest
4. Algiers

Cross-Validation and Research Launch

It aims at cross-validation on floods and transferability to other emergencies (technological disasters, epidemics, terrorism, etc.). It will launch a new line of research by providing “behaviour-aware” participatory assessments and indicators, as well as spatially-explicit interactive short- and long-term simulation tools enabling decision-makers to refine their strategies and policies.