Unravelling the mechanisms behind Multi-Year Droughts

The MultiDry project aims to enhance understanding of multi-year droughts' drivers and impacts through innovative modeling and observations, informing future water management and policy decisions.

Subsidie
€ 1.500.000
2023

Projectdetails

Introduction

Recent decades have seen a doubling in multi-year droughts around the world. With long-lasting impacts on streamflow, groundwater, and vegetation, these negatively affect agriculture, drinking water supply, hydropower, shipping, and ecosystems as a result. The IPCC states that contrary to “normal” droughts, multi-year droughts cause abrupt changes that take years or decades to be reversed.

Climate Change and Drought Frequency

Due to climate change, multi-year droughts are projected to become more frequent and longer, and potential recovery times between droughts will decrease.

Hypothesis

I hypothesize that the rise in multi-year droughts and their impacts is caused by stronger teleconnections between the atmosphere, ocean, and land, enhanced by climate change. Additionally, feedbacks between the bio-hydrological cycle exacerbate the impacts of multi-year droughts.

Project Overview

The MultiDry project will make scientific breakthroughs by tracking the propagation of multi-year droughts from climate forcing through vegetation and soil moisture to surface water and groundwater impacts. It will also include the important, intricate effects of human water use.

Methodology

In MultiDry, I will combine observations with a novel modelling framework to unravel the drivers behind multi-year droughts worldwide, and the feedbacks of vegetation and human water use on:

  1. Drought duration
  2. Propagation
  3. Recovery

This will yield new process understanding, novel scientific datasets, and a basis for reliable projections of future multi-year drought events.

Expected Outcomes

This project will drastically improve our understanding of the drivers and mechanisms of multi-year droughts, which I believe to be fundamentally different from those of “normal” droughts.

Implications for Policy and Management

The MultiDry results will inform policymakers and water managers around the world on future water challenges. MultiDry will also provide the fundamental understanding needed to:

  • Quantify future drought vulnerability around the world
  • Help improve drought preparedness
  • Improve global hydrological modelling of drought

Financiële details & Tijdlijn

Financiële details

Subsidiebedrag€ 1.500.000
Totale projectbegroting€ 1.500.000

Tijdlijn

Startdatum1-9-2023
Einddatum31-8-2028
Subsidiejaar2023

Partners & Locaties

Projectpartners

  • UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHTpenvoerder

Land(en)

Netherlands

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