Early warning systeM for soil dEgRadation: a statistical physics Approach to cLimate change aDaptation

Introduction

Climate change is an urgent challenge and impacts ecosystems, society, and economic activities. Here we focus on the problem of loss of fertile soil (soil degradation), a process that is induced and accelerated by extreme weather and climate change and affects, among other sectors, agriculture, land use planning, and food security.

Current Monitoring Tools

Current tools to monitor soil health for commercial purposes or policymaking are either:

• Limited in scale due to high cost
• Insufficiently accurate due to the lack of underlying robust models

EMERALD Proof of Concept

The EMERALD Proof of Concept aims to:

1. Test a novel soil fertility monitoring and forecasting method
2. Further develop this method
3. Promote final users' uptake of the method

This method is founded in the statistical physics of disordered systems. The expertise built on the underlying physics of spin systems, as part of the ERC starting grant, will be applied to the accurate modeling of vegetation growth, substantially building on our promising preliminary results.

Early Warning System

This early warning and large-scale survey of soil degradation offers an effective climate change adaptation tool. It helps:

• Farmers
• Agricultural organizations
• Governments in land use planning on the medium and long term

The use of earth observation data will ensure a scalable solution to tackle the problem of desertification globally.

Final Aim

The final aim is to:

1. Develop the research results into a service
2. Evaluate the market
3. Obtain the first users
4. Evaluate its impact
5. Develop a comprehensive non-profit commercial strategy for the uptake of this technology