Robust control of the space debris population to define optimal policies and an economic revenue model for the sustainable development of space activities

Introduction

Space assets offer services of social and economic benefit for humankind and enable monitoring the condition of our planet. As recognised by the UN and space agencies, space missions for Earth observation, geolocation, telecommunication, science, and technology contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Interconnectedness of Space

As our lives become more interconnected thanks to satellites and as space becomes more easily accessible, space can be seen as an extension of our planet's biosphere.

Sustainability Challenges

The long-term sustainability of space activities will be possible only if a change of behaviour is implemented by space-faring nations. The growth of space debris is following an exponential trend, which is typical of many other environmental stressors of Earth system trends. Immediate actions are needed to mitigate the increasing risk of collisions and enable the future use of space as a common resource.

Project Overview

In the GREEN SPECIES project, I will devise a new interdisciplinary framework for the modelling of the space debris population and the forecast of its evolution.

Model Development

1. A probabilistic space debris model will be devised for the overall space debris environment.
2. All uncertainties of physical, economic, and political nature will be modelled.
3. The forecast of future launch traffic and compliance to guidelines will be included via economic approaches and evidence theory.

Unique Features

As a unique feature, the project will incorporate the management of the debris environment through a robust time-delayed controller, applied to the space debris model, which is described as a complex dynamical system.

Feedback Control Actions

• Ideal feedback control actions will be transformed into policies and guidelines.
• These will be assessed via quantitative indicators, evaluating both the environmental impact and the social and economic benefit of space missions.
• Policies will act as the actuator of a real controlled system.

Economic Model Proposal

GREEN SPECIES will propose the first economic model for a revenue system for Sustainable Space by leveraging approaches from the management of the global climate.