From the Third Pole to the Sea: impacts of melting glaciers and snowpacks on downstream water and food security

Introduction

The high mountains of South Asia, often called ‘the Third Pole’, store large volumes of water in their glaciers and snowpacks. Twelve large river basins, fed with meltwater from these mountains, are home to almost 2 billion people. In their floodplains, a significant fraction of the global food is produced (34% and 23% of the global rice and wheat production respectively). This makes the ‘Third Pole’ by far the most important region globally in terms of water reserves on which both water- and food security for a huge population heavily depend.

Threats to Water Supply

The water supply from the Third Pole mountains faces many threats. Glaciers and snowpacks are melting at unprecedented rates, and large parts of these reservoirs are likely to disappear by the end of the 21st century.

Increasing Dependence

The dependence of downstream populations on mountain water resources is, however, increasing, mainly due to:

1. Increasing water needs
2. Continuing groundwater depletion
3. Changes in (monsoon) precipitation

Scientific Understanding

There is still limited scientific understanding of the impacts of melting glaciers and snowpacks on food and water security of people living downstream.

Project Goals

3POLE2SEA aims to:

• Quantify the links between the water stored in the High Mountains of Asia and the water- and food security of the people living downstream.
• Evaluate how those links will change in the future.
• Use this understanding to support adaptation design.

I hypothesize that the 12 river basins have very different upstream-downstream dependencies, resulting in different, cascading risks for water and food security. Therefore, they need different responses for effective adaptation.

Methodology

I will develop new models and methods to quantify upstream-downstream links and associated risks for all river basins that are fed by glacier- and snowmelt from the Third Pole.

Impact

The results will advance science and inform policymakers and water managers on how to make agriculture in one of the largest food-producing areas in the world more resilient to changes in the mountains.