Tipping of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation

Introduction

The Atlantic Ocean Circulation, in particular its zonally averaged component called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is one of the tipping elements in the climate system. The AMOC is sensitive to freshwater perturbations and may undergo a transition to a climate-disrupting state within a few decades under continuing greenhouse gas emissions.

Importance of AMOC

The potential climate impacts of such a collapse are enormous and hence reliable estimates of the probability of its occurrence before the year 2100, central within TAOC, are crucial information for policymakers.

Challenges in Estimation

There are several important challenges to provide such estimates of transition probabilities, to determine the climate impacts of an AMOC collapse, and to predict the occurrence of such an event.

1. Computational Challenge: We will develop novel computational methodology to determine transition probabilities between equilibrium states in a hierarchy of climate models.
2. Climate Dynamics Challenge: Application of these techniques will lead to estimates of AMOC transition probabilities versus observable quantities and to transition paths.
3. Climate Modeling Challenge: The climate modeling challenge in TAOC is to simulate an AMOC collapse in one of the state-of-the-art climate models under at least one scenario of climate change.

Prediction Scheme

Finally, a skillful prediction scheme for future AMOC behavior will be developed, using traditional and novel observable precursors based on transition paths, which is the climate prediction challenge in TAOC.

Contributions of TAOC

TAOC will advance the field of climate dynamics by providing:

1. Novel computational techniques to study probabilities of tipping phenomena in a hierarchy of climate models.
2. Novel scientific knowledge on the vulnerability of the AMOC under future climate change.