SubsidieMeestersRevisiting Rainfall Extremes with Ensembles of Convective Objects aNd their Continuum of Interactions with the Large-scale Environment
RECONCILE aims to enhance climate models by analyzing storm populations' dynamics, bridging scales to reduce uncertainties in extreme precipitation projections linked to climate change.
Projectdetails
Introduction
As climate changes, weather becomes more severe. This has been of long-standing concern, and difficulties arise in connecting the two different ranges of scales involved. Hail, rain showers, and strong winds result from the local dynamics of cloud updrafts, while the general circulation determines the relative occurrence of convective regimes to maintain energy balance.
Historical Context
Historically, limitations in computing power mostly led to separate analyses of cloud dynamics and the large-scale circulation. The mesoscales, in-between, host a rich ecosystem of weather features, organized in a diversity of shapes and morphologies but overly simplified in traditional climate models.
Challenges in Climate Projections
This scale separation leads to large uncertainties in the projection of future extremes: the dynamic adjustment of weather systems to the large-scale flow is unconstrained, and small-scale perturbations may feed back onto the global climate state.
Project Overview
RECONCILE revisits how the multi-scale character of extreme precipitation emerges from the interaction between storms and the large-scale circulation. It introduces a novel approach by focusing on the dynamics of storm populations rather than individual storm objects.
Innovative Approach
This paradigm of populations is borrowed from ecology and is scarcely used in climate physics. It allows overcoming strong biases present in operational climate models by allowing for a diversity in the represented cloud structures and an explicit two-way interaction across the continuum of scales.
Opportunities for Research
The current emergence of global storm-resolving models is an unprecedented opportunity to investigate this dynamic coherence across multiple scales of motion. RECONCILE proposes a way forward, at the intersection of two WCRP's grand challenges:
- Weather and Climate Extremes
- Clouds, Circulation, and Climate Sensitivity
This has strong implications for climate model evaluation.
Financiële details & Tijdlijn
Financiële details
| Subsidiebedrag | € 1.322.000 |
| Totale projectbegroting | € 1.322.000 |
Tijdlijn
| Startdatum | 1-12-2023 |
| Einddatum | 30-11-2028 |
| Subsidiejaar | 2023 |
Partners & Locaties
Projectpartners
- CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRSpenvoerder
Land(en)
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Mesoscale organisation of tropical convection
MAESTRO aims to develop observational methods to understand mesoscale convection's impact on climate and improve climate models through advanced airborne remote sensing and analysis frameworks.
Rain and cloud Organization in the Trades using ObseRvations and models
ROTOЯ aims to enhance understanding of shallow trade cumulus clouds' response to climate change by analyzing rain evaporation and cold pools through innovative observations and simulations.
Unlocking the mesoscale frontier of cloud-climate uncertainty
The project aims to develop a novel framework for predicting mesoscale cloudiness using satellite imagery to reduce climate projection uncertainties and enhance future cloud research.
Extratropical-Tropical interAction: A unified view on the extratropical impact on the subtropics and tropics at weather timescales
This project aims to quantify and understand how extratropical dynamics influence tropical weather patterns, enhancing forecasting accuracy and climate projections through innovative modeling and observational studies.
Unlocking the Complexities of Wind Farm-Atmosphere Interaction: A Multi-Scale Approach
This project aims to enhance wind farm performance forecasts by using high-resolution 3D simulations to study the dynamic interactions between wind farms, weather, ocean, and clouds.