FrOm RupturE procesS to Earthquake Early warnING

Introduction

FORESEEING means “FrOm RupturE procesS to Earthquake Early warnING” and is a groundbreaking research project halfway between the investigation of the earthquake generation processes and the implementation of methods for real-time risk mitigation actions.

Background

Incredible progress in earthquake source characterization and modelling has been achieved in the last decades. However, the mechanism of nucleation, radiation, and arrest of seismic fractures is still poorly understood. With that, the fundamental issue of seismology remains unsolved: “How do earthquakes begin and what does control their final size?”

Research Objectives

Within FORESEEING, I want to get to the bottom of earthquake nucleation with all possible means. My goals include:

1. Solving the unsolved issue of how earthquakes start.
2. Understanding the physical processes of their generation.

Once this issue is understood, I want my research outcomes to become a concrete support for the community and be implemented into Earthquake Early Warning systems. This implementation aims for the prompt activation of emergency actions that can save lives, reduce damage, and improve resilience.

Methodology

This will be achieved through an interdisciplinary research approach looking at the rupture process from different points of view.

Data Utilization

• Real earthquake data will be used to find evidence of the nucleation phase of seismic ruptures.
• The relationship between the observed features of the initial recorded signals and the following evolution of the seismic ruptures will be analyzed.

Laboratory Experiments

Laboratory experiments will allow for a deeper understanding of which parameters may influence the rupture development and how they are involved in the process.

Digital Twins

Digital twins will provide the opportunity to explore in great detail the fracture processes during crustal earthquakes and investigate faulting mechanisms in realistic conditions.

Implementation

The implementation of real-time algorithms for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) will move the fundamental knowledge beyond scientific research, becoming a tool to reduce the risk during major earthquakes.