Land use implications of the renewable energy transition

Introduction

To mitigate climate change, most electricity production will have to come from renewable energy (RE) sources. A challenge is that RE has a much larger land footprint than conventional energy sources. Current projections of the RE transition overlook its effects on landscapes, which may lead to unanticipated spill-over effects.

Spatial Constraints

Spatial constraints will severely limit the expansion of RE capacity due to:

1. Competition against other land uses
2. Public opposition
3. Restrictive legislation given the impacts of RE infrastructure on landscapes

It is therefore essential to understand land use impacts of the energy transition. Co-locating RE production with other land uses could decrease the overall impacts of the RE transition on land use and ecosystems compared to a spatial concentration of RE production with an exclusive use of the land.

Proposed Approach

I propose a novel bottom-up approach to produce a fine-grained understanding of decisions by multiple, interacting actors regarding RE deployment in landscapes. The manner in which the RE transition is realized depends on decisions by numerous agents: governments, landowners, RE companies, civil society organizations, etc.

Methodology

My approach will lead to a realistic representation of feasible and sustainable pathways to accomplish a RE transition at scale. I will combine:

• Geographical analyses
• Interviews with stakeholders
• Scenario analysis based on a new spatially-explicit multi-agent simulation model

Anticipating Land Use Impacts

The project will allow better anticipation of land use impacts of the RE transition under various scenarios. It will explore the potential benefits of implementing the RE transition based on technologies that can co-exist and create synergies with current land uses as opposed to technologies that exclude other land uses.

Conclusion

A successful and rapid energy transition is essential to mitigate climate change. This transformation needs to be realized in a way that minimizes negative spill-overs on land use and ecosystems.